On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that the 2025 congressional map Missouri lawmakers pushed to be adopted is prohibited, and the original map created in 2022 will remain in effect for the Nov. 3 midterm election.
According to the Missouri Independent, the rejected map would have placed the second district, represented by Republican Ann Wagner, south of the Missouri River and would have included the southern St. Louis suburbs and Gasconade, Crawford, Jefferson and Washington counties.
The third district, represented by Republican Bob Onder, would’ve included all of St. Charles and Warren counties, as well as Audrain, Lincoln, Monroe, Pike and Ralls counties.
Additionally, the map placed Kansas City voters primarily into the fourth, fifth and sixth districts when they all previously voted in the fifth. The fifth district would have retained only the east side of Kansas City, then moved East to encompass Jefferson City to Phelps County, stopping just before Columbia.
District eight, where Cape Girardeau is located, would have remained unchanged, along with the seventh district in Southwestern Missouri.
Professor of political science Dr. Jeremy Walling said this new map would benefit Republicans by eliminating a Democrat seat in Kansas City, but it could lead to a seat flipping in St. Louis.
“Like, we got rid of a seat, and it was a Democrat seat that we got rid of. What would happen as a result of this? Apparently, it would be that the Kansas City area district, which again traditionally is a Democrat seat, would go away. So we'd be down one more Democrat seat. Interestingly, though, because of politics right now, the Ann Wagner seat around St. Louis looks vulnerable for Republicans,” Walling said. “So while they've been so concerned about carving up the map to try to eliminate the Kansas City area Democrat seat, the Ann Wagner seat might flip and become a Democrat seat.”
In a September decision, the Supreme Court held that “At this late date, ordering reversion to the 2025 map in the midst of an ongoing election would usher in electoral chaos.”
Walling said figuring out the number of congressional districts is mostly math, while deciding where to draw them is very political.
“Republicans want to draw districts in such a way that benefits Republicans, right? And so, when you draw districts for reasons other than population, that's called gerrymandering,” Walling said. “And so, the rules actually say that the districts have to be based substantially on population, but not entirely on population. So there can be other factors weighed along with population, and I guess party could be one of those factors. I guess what I want to emphasize is generally what happens is the process is usually the census, and then within a couple of years you get new districts.”
Even though the new district map was rejected, Walling believes politicians will try again after the next census to carve up Kansas City.
Walling added that this attempt to change the districts likely has to do with the upcoming ballot measures on the Nov. 3 election, which includes several topics such as the legality of abortion, a permanent public endowment fund, repealing Missouri’s existing congressional plan and replacing it with new congressional boundaries, modifying requirements to approve initiative petitions to amend the constitution, the phasing out of the income tax and more.
“One of the things that we've seen is that while Missouri voters have been electing Trump and electing kind of MAGA Republicans, it does also seem like they vote for progressive ballot initiatives, right? So there is a kind of cognitive dissonance going on, where it kind of feels like voters are electing a type of person who wouldn't support the very ballot measures that the voters themselves are supporting,” Walling said.
Walling stressed that civic engagement matters, but he worries these actions by Missouri lawmakers will discourage voters and make them feel their vote doesn't matter.
“So all told, there's about 45 seats that are really up for grabs, which means that there are around 400 seats that are just a lock to be a Democrat or Republican seat. That's because of gerrymandering. That's how we got here. And what ends up happening is us voters end up feeling like, ‘What's the point?’” Walling said.
