AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
President Trump says he's in, quote, "serious discussions" with Iran over the country's nuclear ambitions, and Iran's supreme leader warned of a regional war if the U.S. strikes. President Trump has sent what he calls an armada of ships toward Iran. To understand the consequences of a potential conflict, we turn now to Mehrzad Boroujerdi. He's an Iran scholar at Missouri University of Science and Technology. Welcome to the program.
MEHRZAD BOROUJERDI: Thanks for having me.
RASCOE: So President Trump has threatened another U.S. strike in Iran. What message is he trying to send?
BOROUJERDI: Well, keep in mind that President Trump has already attacked Iran twice, one in the killing of the general Qasem Soleimani and the second time in the last summer's 12-day war, which destroyed Iran's nuclear infrastructure. So he might believe that a third confrontation will finally force submission on the part of Iran and make real concessions on the nuclear issue and other stuff.
When I say nuclear, I mean, I think the administration is asking for no enrichment done on Iranian soil and perhaps exporting already enriched uranium to a different country. And, you know, as part of the maximalist demands that President Trump has formulated, he has also asked for restrictions on Iranian missiles, et cetera, which might make it hard for the Iranian regime to necessarily, you know, submit to all these conditions.
RASCOE: Well, the Iran supreme leader has said that if the U.S. strikes, it will turn into an all-out regional war. But does Iran have the sort of military, you know, ability to do that if the U.S. bombs?
BOROUJERDI: No, I don't think so. The fact of the matter is that Iran does not really have, you know, an air force. All it has is its missiles and drones, and their capabilities are also going to be, you know, limited. Surely, they have means such as speedboats in the Persian Gulf or trying to mind the Gulf and, you know, engage in activities of this sort, you know, to attack refineries of neighboring estates or American, you know, military bases in neighboring countries. But at the end of the day, the power imbalance between the United States and Iran is tremendous. And while it might make sense for Iran to try to escalate as a way of, you know, bringing about a quick de-escalation, I think this can also involve rather punishing, you know, attacks on Iran.
RASCOE: Well, is the current Iran regime - are they concerned about a third strike? Are they trying to stave that off with talks with the U.S.?
BOROUJERDI: Absolutely. Not only, you know, we have what President Trump has said, that discussions are going on, you know, behind the scene, but we also see that diplomatic traffic has surged. This past week, Iran's foreign minister went to Turkey. Qatar's foreign minister went to Tehran. The head of Iran's National Security Council went to Moscow to meet with Mr. Putin, et cetera. So I think everyone is really positioning themselves for what might come next now that this massive U.S. armada is in place.
RASCOE: I mean, Iran insists that it doesn't have a nuclear weapons program. The U.N. nuclear watchdog also says it doesn't. So what would striking Iran achieve right now? Would it achieve possibly regime change, and do you think that would be the goal?
BOROUJERDI: Well, I think that's really the big question - right? - confronting the Trump administration. Look, we just saw the bloodiest repression in modern Iranian history. Thousands were killed by the regime, you know, in a matter of days, right? And now, President Trump went on the record and basically told these demonstrators that, you know, I have your back. And now, if the U.S. does not strike, not only it can embolden the Iranian regime, it can also dishearten all those protesters who were energized by Trump's sort of hard-line rhetoric about, you know, supporting them.
On the other hand - right? - I think the White House is also thinking about the implication, right? Iran is a huge country with 90 million people, and they are thinking about, all right, you know, we engage in aerial attack. What comes next? What happens the morning after? You know, does it bring people to the streets? And if so, is it enough - going to be enough to bring about a regime change, right? So those are the questions we don't know.
RASCOE: So as you mentioned, Iran was rocked by those violent protests last month, and there was a crackdown. What does the government need to do to calm Iranians at this time?
BOROUJERDI: Nothing really so far. I mean, the supreme leader basically went and, this morning in his speech, announced everything as being a foreign plot and a sort of a coup. And he said, you know, we managed to put it down. So there is no sign of reconciliation with the public as of yet.
RASCOE: That's Mehrzad Boroujerdi of Missouri University of Science and Technology. Thank you so much.
BOROUJERDI: Thanks for having me.
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