A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Does Russia even want peace? Many analysts are asking this question as diplomatic efforts continue to come up short over and over again. Oleksa Drachewych is one of those analysts. He's a history lecturer at Western University in Ontario, Canada, where he focuses on Soviet and modern European foreign policy. So let's start with that big question. Do you think, Oleksa, that Russia even wants peace between it and Ukraine?
OLEKSA DRACHEWYCH: Only on their terms, to put it bluntly.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. And wondering when it comes to Russia and what they're trying to achieve then through this process, what do you think first it means in respect to Ukraine?
DRACHEWYCH: So with regards to Ukraine, it's an opportunity for them to put some more pressure onto Ukraine. I think they take that the Trump administration's desire to bring peace in Ukraine is legitimate, and so they're using it, for the most part, to put a lot of the pressure back onto Ukraine by making them appear - Russia, this is - making Russia appear that they're at least willing to engage. But in reality, they're sort of keeping the process moving on, maybe seeing what the Americans will either side with them on. For example, earlier this year, before real negotiations happened, we heard American representatives talk about how NATO would not be in the cards or territorial swaps would need be - would need to happen to bring peace. That was back in the spring. And we've seen that sort of be a consistent thing for the Americans to bring up. Obviously, that's gone back and forth, as the Ukrainians have then engaged in the same sort of management of the relationship they have with the Trump administration as well.
MARTÍNEZ: You know, I think back to the NATO summit of 2008 in Romania. That's when the U.S. was advocating for a path for NATO citizenship for Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin told President Bush that, quote, "Ukraine is not even a country." So when I think about that, I'm wondering, Oleksa, what do you think Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to be?
DRACHEWYCH: Ultimately, a vassal state, or at least a neutral state with significant Russian influence. He's even, in the last week again highlighted how he doesn't see the Zelenskyy government as a legitimate government. When we look at also the peace process more broadly, he - it's clear that Putin and the Russians want to negotiate with the Americans. In a perfect world, I think they would like to see the Americans and the Russians dictate terms to Ukraine and say, take it or leave it. This is the best you're going to get. Even Putin doesn't really seem to be negotiating with the Europeans, doesn't seem to want to. He wants to go back to a great power system where Russia mattered equally to the United States. And in this case that he wants a Ukraine that either is going to be destabilized by Russian presence in some way, shape or form, or one that won't be able to necessarily really protect itself in the event that Russia decides to continue hostilities.
MARTÍNEZ: So is it fair to say that Vladimir Putin, when it comes to Ukraine, would like another version of what he has in Belarus?
DRACHEWYCH: Something like that, definitely. And that really hasn't changed ever since the escalation began in February of 2022. He has frequently tried to delegitimize the Zelenskyy government, and there's sort of been a number of theories that have floated around since that moment of who might be tapped from why they're putting in Viktor Yanukovych again, Viktor Medvedchuk or other candidates have been reported, that there might even be sort of this puppet regime that would be sort of what the ideal was. With that not being the case, things like, for example, the potential elections that might happen whenever there might be peace could be a way for the Russians to also influence that process to have a more pro-Russian candidate.
MARTÍNEZ: One more thing, Oleksa. Just a few seconds to go. In the event that a deal is signed, and without knowing, obviously, what is in it and what - who agrees to what, do you think Russia can be relied to uphold a deal they sign?
DRACHEWYCH: To this point, I have not seen anything that would suggest that's actually the case. Even some of the original points of the 28-point peace process made me sort of concerned in that they lend themselves to Russia manipulating the process to essentially break any sort of a peace deal. By this, meaning the long-range strikes on St. Petersburg or Moscow being a potential issue, or the claims that Ukraine would need to denazify. Well, what does that mean from the Russian angle versus virtually everyone else when Ukraine doesn't have a Nazi government? Fundamentally, I don't see Russia actually holding too much at this point.
MARTÍNEZ: That's Oleksa Drachewych. He's a history lecturer at Western University. Thank you very much.
DRACHEWYCH: Thank you.
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